I have a hunch and I wanted to share. I think the Denver Broncos may win Sunday's game outright.
Even before seeing the fact that the last 5 teams in the NFL playoffs with a record of .500 or worse are 5-0 against the spread the past 5 years - I had a hunch about the Broncos. Even before seeing that Denver coach John Fox is 6-2 ATS in the playoffs and 5-1 ATS when an underdog - I had a hunch about the Broncos.
The Steelers are very banged up. Many pundits are saying Tim Tebow is the worst QB in the playoffs but I would take Tebow over an completely immobile Ben Roethlisberger. Who would you take - Tebow or Charlie Batch? Remember how the Steelers fared against the 49ers - a team with a strong running game and defense? Remember how the Steelers lost twice to the Ravens - a team with a strong running game and defense? Remember how the Steelers got beat by the Texans - a team with a strong running game and defense? Three out of four of those games were on the road. This Sunday the Steelers will be facing a team with a strong running game and dense and they will be on the road.
And they will be without Rashad Mendenhall and maybe Ben Roethlisberger. Last year the Saints lost to the Seahawks as prohibitive favorites. On the road. Against a team with a strong running game and defense. And their QB and running backs were healthy.
The Steelers are 9 point favorites and -$400 on the moneyline. I may be taking the Broncos on both.